WARR team of experts (http://www.warr.pl/) in cooperation with the Irish Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI – http://www.esri.ie/) in Dublin prepared in 2002 for the Ministry of Economy an adaptation of the HERMIN econometric model to assesing a potential impact of the European Union Structural Funds on the macroeconomic situation in Poland. Prof. John Bradley (ESRI) was the author of the original HERMIN model and WARR experts closely cooperated with him preparing its Polish adaptation.
Works’ outcomes were included into the National Development Plan 2004-2006 – the document adopted by the Council of Ministers on 11.02.2003 and passed to the European Commission. This study became a crucial element of ex-ante evaluation included in the document. Polish NDP 2004-2006 was in 2003 subject to negotiations with the European Commission in order to agree the next document – Community Support Framework (CSF). Works’ outcomes of the team implementing the Polish HERMIN model became also a part of the CSF for Poland – a document prepared by the European Commission on the basis of the passed NDP and defining directions and an amount of the Structural Funds support for development projects. Within the framework of the project prepared by WARR an estimation of expected results of planned interventions’ impact on development processes in Poland until 2010 was done. Estimation of professor John Bradley (ESRI) and WARR were the first published calculations of this nature. They were presented and discussed in many scientific and political circles in the country and abroad. Aftermaths of WARR experts’ calculations indicate that the Polish accession to the European Union will evoke visible positive macroeconomic benefits. Comparing two development scenarios for Poland: with and without accession, on average, annually about 1% of an additional GDP growth may be expected, what results only from the EU structural support absorption and the unemployment rate in 2010 may be lower even by 3% in comparison to 2003.
In 2004, works on a Polish adaptation of the HERMIN model were continued. The first version of the model was modified and updated and initial preparatory works directed to constructing a regional model for Polish voivodships were made. A preliminary model for all Polish voivodships was prepared on the basis of the Dolnośląskie voivodship.
Works on the HERMIN model for the Polish economy and related regional models are currently continued. The first stage assumes an improvement of the model for the Polish economy, within the framework of which specific models for agriculture and the public sector will be prepared, the monetary sector will be more detailed and the disaggregated industry sector will be included into the national model. The final outcome of this stage will be reports presenting an improved HERMIN model for the Polish economy and its database (it will be made available also in an electronic version), mid-term forecast for the Polish economy and an users’ manual for the central level administration.
The second stage assumes preparation of the HERMIN model for Polish regions (voivodships). The final outcome of this stage will be reports presenting 16 regional models and regional databases for 16 voivodships (they will be made available also in an electronic version), as well as an users’ manual for the central and self-government administration of the regional level.
Simultaneously, during this project, a group of the central administration and marshal offices employees will be trained on using the national model and regional HERMIN models.
After these works are completed, forecasts on the economic development of regions will be possible as a supplement to aggregated national forecasts. The regional HERMIN model will be able to serve to self-government authorities in voivodships to prepare ex-ante and ex-post analyses, for both an impact of EU funds’ assistance on regions and the support for regions from the national budget e.g. within voivodship contracts.
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